2015年12月15- 16日,全(quan)國農技(ji)中心組織(zhi)各省(sheng)(區、市)測報人員和有關(guan)專家(jia)會商了2016年農作物重(zhong)大病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢。由于(yu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)源發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)基數較高、冬春(chun)季氣候(hou)和作物種植有利等因素影響,預計2016年我國農作物重(zhong)大病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)總體為(wei)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)年份(fen),全(quan)國累計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)約55億畝(mu)次。其(qi)中,小麥赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、粘蟲(chong)(chong)、水稻(dao)(dao)“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)等流行性和遷飛性病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)重(zhong)發(fa)風險高于(yu)上(shang)年,水稻(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)螟蟲(chong)(chong)、小麥蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)、玉米(mi)螟發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區域廣、為(wei)害(hai)重(zhong),稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、小麥條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、玉米(mi)大斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、馬鈴(ling)薯晚疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在部(bu)分(fen)地區有偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)可能,飛蝗和草地螟總體發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)平穩。

　　一、水稻(dao)“兩遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)

　　據監測,“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)2015年秋(qiu)季(ji)回(hui)遷蟲(chong)量(liang)較高(gao),長江中下游、江南和華南稻區燈下誘蟲(chong)量(liang)平(ping)均比常年高(gao)8%。據國(guo)家(jia)氣候(hou)中心監測和預測,截至(zhi)12月26日,海溫距(ju)平(ping)累計值為(wei)(wei)23℃,月海溫距(ju)平(ping)最大(da)值已達到2.3℃,為(wei)(wei)歷(li)史(shi)第二強厄爾尼(ni)諾事件(jian),且(qie)(qie)將持(chi)續至(zhi)2016年春季(ji)。研究表明,厄爾尼(ni)諾強發生年的當年和次(ci)年往往是水稻病蟲(chong)害(hai)高(gao)發年。本次(ci)厄爾尼(ni)諾事件(jian)將導(dao)致(zhi)南方稻區冬(dong)春氣溫正常或(huo)偏高(gao)、降(jiang)(jiang)水偏多、汛期(qi)(qi)提前、時(shi)空分布(bu)不均,這樣(yang)的氣候(hou)條件(jian)有(you)利于我國(guo)和越南“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)越冬(dong)和蟲(chong)源積累,增加發生基數,亦(yi)導(dao)致(zhi)“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)遷入期(qi)(qi)提前,遷入量(liang)增加,局部出現集(ji)中降(jiang)(jiang)落為(wei)(wei)害(hai)。我國(guo)南方稻區單、雙季(ji)稻混(hun)栽(zai),以粗稈大(da)穗、優質高(gao)產型品種為(wei)(wei)主,易形成適溫高(gao)濕的田(tian)間(jian)小氣候(hou),且(qie)(qie)栽(zai)插期(qi)(qi)、生育期(qi)(qi)不整齊,橋梁田(tian)多,有(you)利于“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)輾轉(zhuan)為(wei)(wei)害(hai),加重為(wei)(wei)害(hai)程(cheng)度。

　　預計2016年稻(dao)(dao)飛虱總(zong)(zong)體偏重至大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),程度將明顯重于近年,發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積4.3億畝次,華南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中下游(you)稻(dao)(dao)區大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),西(xi)南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)(dao)區偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。稻(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟總(zong)(zong)體偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積3.2億畝次,黔東、湘(xiang)西(xi)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)和長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中下游(you)湖庫、沿江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)稻(dao)(dao)區大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),西(xi)南(nan)(nan)大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。

　　二、水稻紋枯病

　　我國(guo)主(zhu)產(chan)稻(dao)區(qu)紋枯病(bing)連年發生(sheng),田間菌源基數不斷積累,大部稻(dao)區(qu)具(ju)備中(zhong)等以上發生(sheng)程度的菌源基礎(chu)。據預測,2015年冬季(2015年12月至2016年2月)、2016年春季(3-5月),西南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)和華南(nan)(nan)稻(dao)區(qu)溫度偏高,降水偏多(duo)。目前(qian)我國(guo)各稻(dao)區(qu)主(zhu)栽的粗稈大穗高產(chan)品種(zhong)多(duo)為(wei)感病(bing)品種(zhong),溫濕條件和種(zhong)植制(zhi)度適合水稻(dao)主(zhu)產(chan)區(qu)紋枯病(bing)越冬和病(bing)害流行。

　　預計2016年(nian)水(shui)稻紋(wen)枯病偏重(zhong)至大發生(sheng),發生(sheng)面積2.7億(yi)畝,華南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)中下游稻區大發生(sheng),西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)(bei)部和江(jiang)淮(huai)稻區偏重(zhong)發生(sheng),西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部和東(dong)北(bei)(bei)稻區中等發生(sheng)。

　　三、水稻螟蟲

　　冬(dong)(dong)前調查(cha),2015年二(er)化(hua)螟(ming)越冬(dong)(dong)蟲源(yuan)(yuan)面積(ji)和基數偏(pian)高,全(quan)(quan)國蟲源(yuan)(yuan)面積(ji)比(bi)2014年增加(jia)(jia)10.8%,華南南部、江南、長江中游、東北(bei)大部稻區(qu)畝活蟲數為2500-5000頭,其(qi)中江西、黑龍江畝活蟲數同比(bi)增加(jia)(jia)34.8%、65.9%,具備偏(pian)重(zhong)以上發(fa)生程度的(de)蟲源(yuan)(yuan)基數。預測(ce)2015年冬(dong)(dong)季,全(quan)(quan)國呈現氣溫偏(pian)高、降水南北(bei)多(duo)中部少的(de)趨(qu)勢,溫濕(shi)條件適合水稻主產區(qu)螟(ming)蟲越冬(dong)(dong)。我國主產稻區(qu)機收面積(ji)大、殘(can)留稻樁(zhuang)高,秸稈粗大品種比(bi)例(li)高,有利于水稻螟(ming)蟲的(de)越冬(dong)(dong)、發(fa)生和繁(fan)殖。

　　預計2016年水稻螟(ming)(ming)蟲總體中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生,發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)積2.8億畝次(ci),其中(zhong),二(er)化螟(ming)(ming)在(zai)江南(nan)和長江中(zhong)下(xia)游單雙季(ji)稻混栽(zai)區和西南(nan)北(bei)部(bu)稻區偏重發(fa)(fa)生;三化螟(ming)(ming)在(zai)華南(nan)、西南(nan)北(bei)部(bu)稻區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生;大螟(ming)(ming)在(zai)長江中(zhong)下(xia)游部(bu)分稻區呈(cheng)上升(sheng)趨(qu)勢(shi)。

　　四、粘蟲

　　2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三(san)代粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為(wei)害程(cheng)度明(ming)顯重于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),部(bu)分(fen)(fen)區域重于2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),積累了大(da)量(liang)(liang)有效蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源。夏末(mo)秋初,東北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、黃淮(huai)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中下游(you)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)、華(hua)南(nan)和西(xi)南(nan)地區高(gao)空(kong)測報燈均(jun)誘(you)到粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong),誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)屬較高(gao)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份。9月份累計誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang),遼寧彰武、吉林長嶺、河北(bei)(bei)灤(luan)縣(xian)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)1174頭(tou)、2741頭(tou)和4941頭(tou),山東長島(dao)為(wei)53649頭(tou),河南(nan)孟州、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇東臺、四川安縣(xian)、重慶(qing)豐(feng)都、湖北(bei)(bei)潛江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、湖南(nan)芷江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)為(wei)250-870頭(tou),天(tian)津寶坻(chi)、山東萊州、山西(xi)萬(wan)榮、上(shang)海(hai)奉賢、浙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)象山60-140頭(tou);9-11月份累計誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang),廣西(xi)宜州、福建霞浦分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)104頭(tou)和298頭(tou)。以上(shang)各點誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)普遍高(gao)于2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),其中,已證明(ming)當(dang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)秋季(ji)回(hui)遷(qian)數量(liang)(liang)與次年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春季(ji)北(bei)(bei)遷(qian)數量(liang)(liang)呈顯著正相關的(de)(de)山東長島(dao)誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)是2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)來第二高(gao)的(de)(de)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份,分(fen)(fen)別是2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)28.3倍(bei)(bei)和1.9倍(bei)(bei);遼寧彰武是2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)3.3倍(bei)(bei)(2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)未見蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)),河北(bei)(bei)灤(luan)縣(xian)是2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)1.8倍(bei)(bei),江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇東臺、上(shang)海(hai)奉賢、浙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)象山是2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)10倍(bei)(bei)以上(shang),福建霞浦是2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)2.2倍(bei)(bei)。預測2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)冬季(ji),華(hua)南(nan)和江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)大(da)部(bu)氣溫正常、降水偏多;2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春季(ji),長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中下游(you)至黃淮(huai)南(nan)部(bu)降水偏多、氣溫接(jie)近(jin)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),對(dui)粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)種群冬春季(ji)繁衍和發生為(wei)害有利(li)。

　　預計2016年(nian)粘蟲總體(ti)為(wei)偏重發(fa)生,發(fa)生面積可達1億畝次(ci),其(qi)中黃(huang)淮、華北(bei)和東北(bei)等(deng)地玉米為(wei)主(zhu)的禾谷類作物局部田塊高密度集中為(wei)害(hai)的風險較高。

　　五、小麥蚜蟲

　　冬(dong)(dong)前調查,蚜(ya)蟲在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)淮、黃淮、華北(bei)(bei)和(he)(he)(he)西北(bei)(bei)麥(mai)區普遍發(fa)生,發(fa)生面積與2014年(nian)持平;安徽、山西、陜(shan)西、河南(nan)、北(bei)(bei)京、山東(dong)平均(jun)百株蚜(ya)量(liang)為5-16頭,甘(gan)(gan)肅(su)、河北(bei)(bei)、寧夏1-3頭,與常年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)相比,山西、甘(gan)(gan)肅(su)分別增加(jia)3%、10%,其他大部麥(mai)區接(jie)(jie)近;大部麥(mai)區比2014年(nian)同期(qi)(qi)增加(jia)45%-200%。預測2015年(nian)冬(dong)(dong)季,黃淮、華北(bei)(bei)和(he)(he)(he)西北(bei)(bei)冬(dong)(dong)麥(mai)區大部氣(qi)溫較常年(nian)偏高(gao);2016年(nian)春季,大部麥(mai)區氣(qi)溫接(jie)(jie)近常年(nian)同期(qi)(qi),華北(bei)(bei)、黃淮中北(bei)(bei)部和(he)(he)(he)西南(nan)大部降(jiang)水偏少,冬(dong)(dong)春季氣(qi)候對(dui)蚜(ya)蟲越冬(dong)(dong)和(he)(he)(he)發(fa)生為害(hai)(hai)有(you)(you)利。2015年(nian)全國冬(dong)(dong)小麥(mai)種植面積穩中略增,苗(miao)情長勢較好,江(jiang)(jiang)淮、黃淮和(he)(he)(he)華北(bei)(bei)主(zhu)產麥(mai)區主(zhu)栽品種對(dui)蚜(ya)蟲的抗性普遍較差,有(you)(you)利于蚜(ya)蟲發(fa)生為害(hai)(hai)。

　　預計2016年小麥蚜(ya)蟲總體偏重發生(sheng)(sheng),發生(sheng)(sheng)面積2.6億畝次(ci)。其(qi)中,山東、河北(bei)大(da)發生(sheng)(sheng),四(si)川、寧夏、華北(bei)和(he)黃淮的其(qi)他麥區(qu)偏重發生(sheng)(sheng),長江中下游麥區(qu)大(da)部、西南、西北(bei)的其(qi)他麥區(qu)中等(deng)發生(sheng)(sheng)。

　　六、小麥條銹病

　　冬前(qian)調查,2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)小(xiao)麥秋(qiu)苗發(fa)(fa)生面積小(xiao)、總體病(bing)(bing)(bing)情偏(pian)(pian)輕。甘肅(su)、寧(ning)(ning)夏、青海、陜西(xi)等西(xi)北秋(qiu)苗主發(fa)(fa)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)生面積216萬(wan)畝,是2001年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來最小(xiao)的一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),各(ge)地(di)多(duo)以單(dan)片病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)為(wei)主,局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)早(zao)播麥田發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)中心多(duo)。甘肅(su)、寧(ning)(ning)夏見(jian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)面積同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減少12.0%和(he)56.8%,一(yi)般(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率0.01%-6.5%,最高達(da)30%。陜西(xi)關中地(di)區(qu)寶雞、咸陽(yang)等地(di)9個(ge)縣(xian)見(jian)病(bing)(bing)(bing),見(jian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)縣(xian)數比(bi)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)多(duo)4個(ge),屬偏(pian)(pian)早(zao)發(fa)(fa)生年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份。四(si)川廣元、綿陽(yang)、涼(liang)山的3個(ge)縣(xian)零星發(fa)(fa)生,屬早(zao)發(fa)(fa)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份。新疆(jiang)阿(a)克蘇零星見(jian)病(bing)(bing)(bing),平均病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率為(wei)1.3%,重(zhong)于2012-2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期。預測2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)冬季,長(chang)江(jiang)中下游和(he)西(xi)南麥區(qu)降(jiang)水偏(pian)(pian)多(duo),利(li)于條銹(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)冬繁和(he)擴散;2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春(chun)季,西(xi)北地(di)區(qu)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、長(chang)江(jiang)中下游至黃(huang)淮(huai)南部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)區(qu)域降(jiang)水偏(pian)(pian)多(duo),其中甘肅(su)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、寧(ning)(ning)夏、陜西(xi)西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、山東南部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、河南東南部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、湖北東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)2～5成,對條銹(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)春(chun)季流行十分(fen)有利(li)。目前(qian)我國大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)種(zhong)植(zhi)品種(zhong)抗銹(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)性較差,特別(bie)是2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來,條銹(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)菌新致病(bing)(bing)(bing)類群“貴農22”在甘肅(su)、四(si)川等部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)上升為(wei)優勢類群,加(jia)速了(le)小(xiao)麥品種(zhong)抗銹(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)性的喪失,導致病(bing)(bing)(bing)害加(jia)重(zhong)。

　　預計2016年條銹(xiu)病總體中(zhong)(zhong)等發生(sheng),發生(sheng)面(mian)積約(yue)3700萬畝(mu)。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong),湖北江(jiang)漢平原及(ji)西(xi)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)、陜西(xi)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)及(ji)關中(zhong)(zhong)西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、甘肅隴南(nan)及(ji)隴中(zhong)(zhong)晚(wan)熟(shu)麥(mai)區、四(si)川東北部(bu)(bu)(bu)沿(yan)江(jiang)河(he)流域、河(he)南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、新疆(jiang)伊(yi)犁(li)河(he)谷東部(bu)(bu)(bu)及(ji)塔城(cheng)盆地(di)局部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)區偏重流行(xing)(xing),西(xi)南(nan)其(qi)(qi)他麥(mai)區、甘肅大部(bu)(bu)(bu)、陜西(xi)其(qi)(qi)他地(di)區、河(he)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)、寧夏(xia)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、青海東部(bu)(bu)(bu)和新疆(jiang)其(qi)(qi)他麥(mai)區中(zhong)(zhong)等流行(xing)(xing)。

　　七、玉米螟

　　據調(diao)查, 2015年冬(dong)前玉(yu)米(mi)螟平均百稈活蟲數(shu),遼寧、黑(hei)龍江、吉林為50-75頭(tou),山東(dong)(dong)、江蘇、河(he)(he)南、新疆為31-38頭(tou),云南、湖(hu)(hu)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、天津、內蒙古、河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、陜西、重慶、湖(hu)(hu)南、貴州、安(an)徽為17-28頭(tou),山西、北(bei)(bei)(bei)京、甘肅(su)、四(si)川不(bu)足10頭(tou)。與2014年比,遼寧增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)138%,河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、陜西增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)27%和58%,北(bei)(bei)(bei)京、山東(dong)(dong)、河(he)(he)南分別增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)7-12%,天津增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2%;黑(hei)龍江、吉林和內蒙古等(deng)其他省(sheng)份(fen)偏(pian)低10%-40%。2015年冬(dong)季(ji),黃(huang)淮海地區(qu)氣溫偏(pian)高,對玉(yu)米(mi)螟越冬(dong)有利;2016年春(chun)季(ji),東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)大部降(jiang)水偏(pian)多、氣溫偏(pian)低,有利于(yu)一(yi)代玉(yu)米(mi)螟成蟲集中(zhong)羽化。東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)等(deng)大部地區(qu)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)抗(kang)性差,對玉(yu)米(mi)螟種(zhong)(zhong)群(qun)繁殖為害有利。

　　預計2016年玉(yu)米(mi)螟發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)3.5億(yi)(yi)畝次,其中,一代(dai)(dai)在(zai)(zai)東北(bei)(bei)大部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),華北(bei)(bei)、黃淮和(he)西南部(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)1.5億(yi)(yi)畝;二代(dai)(dai)在(zai)(zai)遼寧、內蒙古、新疆和(he)云(yun)南偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),東北(bei)(bei)、華北(bei)(bei)、西南大部(bu)(bu)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)1.2億(yi)(yi)畝;三代(dai)(dai)在(zai)(zai)黃淮海大部(bu)(bu)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)8000萬畝。

　　八、飛蝗

　　據(ju)調查,2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)東(dong)亞(ya)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)高(gao)(gao)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)、西(xi)藏飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)和(he)(he)(he)(he)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian),亞(ya)洲(zhou)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)和(he)(he)(he)(he)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)偏(pian)低(di)(di)。其中(zhong),東(dong)亞(ya)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)秋殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)812.7萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu),分(fen)別比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)近(jin)(jin)(jin)5年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)減(jian)少(shao)2.3%、7.9%;平(ping)均(jun)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)每(mei)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)10.7頭(tou)(tou),分(fen)別比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)近(jin)(jin)(jin)5年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)減(jian)少(shao)2.7%、8.5%。天津、河北、山東(dong)、河南、山西(xi)、陜西(xi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)海(hai)南都發(fa)(fa)(fa)現每(mei)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)100頭(tou)(tou)以上的高(gao)(gao)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)點(dian)片,面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)為10.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu),比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增加33.3%,比近(jin)(jin)(jin)5年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)減(jian)少(shao)28.9%。西(xi)藏飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)在四(si)川(chuan)(chuan)農(nong)區殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)為3.1萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu),分(fen)別比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)、2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增加6.9%、24.0%,平(ping)均(jun)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)每(mei)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)6.8頭(tou)(tou),略高(gao)(gao)于(yu)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)近(jin)(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)。亞(ya)洲(zhou)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)21.4萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu),比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)28.7%,比近(jin)(jin)(jin)3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)減(jian)少(shao)43.9%;平(ping)均(jun)殘(can)(can)(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)密(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)每(mei)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)2.8頭(tou)(tou),比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)12.5%,比近(jin)(jin)(jin)3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)減(jian)少(shao)39.4%。據(ju)悉,2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)哈薩(sa)克斯(si)坦亞(ya)洲(zhou)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)普(pu)遍,但(dan)程度(du)(du)(du)(du)較輕(qing),因此,不排除境外飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)蟲源遷入(ru)境內的可能。氣(qi)(qi)候預測(ce),2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)冬季,黃淮、華北和(he)(he)(he)(he)內蒙古大部(bu)氣(qi)(qi)溫偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)1-2℃,新(xin)疆北部(bu)、四(si)川(chuan)(chuan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)西(xi)藏大部(bu)氣(qi)(qi)溫正(zheng)常,有(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)三種(zhong)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)越冬;2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)春(chun)季,除新(xin)疆北部(bu)氣(qi)(qi)溫偏(pian)低(di)(di)外,其他蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)區正(zheng)常或偏(pian)高(gao)(gao),降(jiang)(jiang)水除黃淮南部(bu)偏(pian)多外,其他大部(bu)地區正(zheng)常或偏(pian)少(shao),對飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)總體有(you)(you)利(li)。東(dong)亞(ya)飛(fei)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)部(bu)分(fen)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)區水庫(ku)水位下降(jiang)(jiang),宜蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)擴大,生(sheng)態環境也有(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)(huang)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。

　　預計2016年東(dong)(dong)亞飛(fei)(fei)蝗總體中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng),河南(nan)濮陽(yang)、滎陽(yang)、焦作,山東(dong)(dong)東(dong)(dong)明,河北(bei)南(nan)大(da)港(gang)、海興,天津北(bei)大(da)港(gang),山西(xi)芮城、永濟,陜西(xi)大(da)荔,海南(nan)東(dong)(dong)方等(deng)地局(ju)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)夏蝗會出現高密度(du)蝗蝻點片。西(xi)藏(zang)(zang)飛(fei)(fei)蝗在四川、西(xi)藏(zang)(zang)大(da)部(bu)(bu)常發(fa)區(qu)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng),金(jin)沙江、雅(ya)礱江、雅(ya)魯藏(zang)(zang)布江等(deng)河谷地區(qu)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)。亞洲(zhou)飛(fei)(fei)蝗偏(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng),不排除境外飛(fei)(fei)蝗遷飛(fei)(fei)入境為(wei)害的可能(neng),黑龍江和吉林局(ju)部(bu)(bu)葦塘濕地可能(neng)發(fa)生(sheng)高密度(du)群居(ju)型蝗蝻點片。東(dong)(dong)亞飛(fei)(fei)蝗、西(xi)藏(zang)(zang)飛(fei)(fei)蝗、亞洲(zhou)飛(fei)(fei)蝗發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)分(fen)別為(wei)2000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、160萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、60萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu),達標面積(ji)分(fen)別為(wei)1200萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、110萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、40萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。

　　九、草地螟

　　據(ju)調查,2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)草地螟越冬蟲源僅在內蒙古(gu)呼和(he)(he)浩特、鄂爾多斯、巴彥淖(nao)爾、呼倫貝爾4個盟(市(shi))4個旗(qi)(縣(xian)(xian))和(he)(he)寧夏石嘴山市(shi)2縣(xian)(xian)(區(qu)(qu)(qu))見(jian)蟲,兩(liang)區(qu)(qu)(qu)越冬面積分別(bie)為(wei)24.2萬畝、3.6萬畝,越冬活繭平均密度分別(bie)為(wei)每平方(fang)米(mi)0.58頭(tou)和(he)(he)0.01頭(tou),全國越冬總(zong)蟲量與(yu)近5年(nian)(nian)(nian)相比,僅高于(yu)2011年(nian)(nian)(nian),遠(yuan)(yuan)遠(yuan)(yuan)低(di)于(yu)2010、2012和(he)(he)2013,比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少(shao)35.4%,仍為(wei)2001年(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來較輕的年(nian)(nian)(nian)份。新疆在阿勒泰地區(qu)(qu)(qu)3個縣(xian)(xian)(市(shi))、和(he)(he)田地區(qu)(qu)(qu)1個縣(xian)(xian)查見(jian)越冬蟲源,越冬面積8.3萬畝,越冬活繭平均密度每平方(fang)米(mi)0.05頭(tou),越冬總(zong)蟲量遠(yuan)(yuan)遠(yuan)(yuan)低(di)于(yu)2010-2013年(nian)(nian)(nian),比2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少(shao)42.9%。據(ju)悉(xi),可為(wei)我(wo)國提供(gong)蟲源的俄羅(luo)斯新西伯(bo)利(li)亞和(he)(he)遠(yuan)(yuan)東(dong)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)草地螟同樣處(chu)于(yu)發生(sheng)周(zhou)期的低(di)谷。氣候預測,2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)春季(ji),西北、東(dong)北地區(qu)(qu)(qu)大部氣溫偏低(di),對寄(ji)主植(zhi)物生(sheng)長、越冬代成蟲的羽化、宿留、繁殖和(he)(he)一代幼(you)蟲發生(sheng)為(wei)害(hai)有不(bu)利(li)影響。

　　預計2016年草地螟一(yi)代(dai)在西北、華(hua)北、東北大部輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生,發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)積約100萬畝(mu)。由于蒙古、哈(ha)薩(sa)克(ke)斯(si)坦等地蟲(chong)源不(bu)(bu)清,不(bu)(bu)排除(chu)一(yi)代(dai)成蟲(chong)集中遷(qian)入造成二(er)代(dai)幼蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)生為害的(de)可(ke)能。

　　十、氣候型流行(xing)性病(bing)害

　　赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、大(da)斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、晚疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)是(shi)(shi)我(wo)國小(xiao)麥(mai)、水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)、玉米(mi)和馬(ma)鈴薯四(si)大(da)糧食(shi)作物發生(sheng)最(zui)嚴重的氣(qi)候(hou)型流(liu)行(xing)性(xing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害。目(mu)前,我(wo)國生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)上主(zhu)栽(zai)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)多為感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)或(huo)抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)差品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong),除揚麥(mai)、寧麥(mai)等(deng)小(xiao)麥(mai)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)表現較好抗(kang)性(xing)外,長(chang)江中(zhong)下(xia)游、江淮(huai)、黃(huang)淮(huai)和華北(bei)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)主(zhu)推品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)多為赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong);水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)主(zhu)栽(zai)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)稻(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)性(xing)參(can)差不齊,四(si)川、重慶(qing)、黑龍江部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)地區(qu)(qu)感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)達(da)50%-60%;馬(ma)鈴薯主(zhu)產(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)植面積在70%以上。抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)由于連(lian)年(nian)(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)植,病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)菌(jun)群體的變異導致(zhi)抗(kang)性(xing)減弱、退(tui)化甚至喪失。小(xiao)麥(mai)和水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)等(deng)作物均存在品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)跨區(qu)(qu)域種(zhong)(zhong)植,使得品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)抗(kang)性(xing)表現差。作物高產(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)高肥(fei)水(shui)(shui)(shui)管(guan)理,致(zhi)使群體大(da)、田間郁(yu)閉,也有利于病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害的發生(sheng)流(liu)行(xing)。2015年(nian)(nian)江淮(huai)、黃(huang)淮(huai)、長(chang)江中(zhong)下(xia)游麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)冬(dong)麥(mai)播期(qi)(qi)(qi)推遲,赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)易感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)期(qi)(qi)(qi)與2016年(nian)(nian)春(chun)季連(lian)陰雨(yu)天氣(qi)相遇(yu)(yu)概率增高,且部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)常發省赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)菌(jun)對(dui)常用藥劑(ji)抗(kang)性(xing)不斷(duan)發展,會影響(xiang)預(yu)防效果,加(jia)重赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)流(liu)行(xing)的程度。氣(qi)候(hou)預(yu)測,2016年(nian)(nian)春(chun)季,大(da)部(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)氣(qi)溫接近常年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi),長(chang)江中(zhong)下(xia)游至黃(huang)淮(huai)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)降水(shui)(shui)(shui)偏多,其中(zhong)安徽(hui)、江蘇、上海、浙江西北(bei)部(bu)(bu)、湖北(bei)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)、河南(nan)東(dong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)、山東(dong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)偏多2～5成(cheng),對(dui)赤(chi)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)流(liu)行(xing)十分(fen)(fen)有利。水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)分(fen)(fen)蘗和抽穗期(qi)(qi)(qi)、小(xiao)麥(mai)抽穗揚花期(qi)(qi)(qi)、玉米(mi)拔節至抽穗期(qi)(qi)(qi)和馬(ma)鈴薯開花期(qi)(qi)(qi)是(shi)(shi)易感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)期(qi)(qi)(qi),此(ci)時期(qi)(qi)(qi)的氣(qi)溫條(tiao)件(jian)多適(shi)合,降水(shui)(shui)(shui)是(shi)(shi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害流(liu)行(xing)的關鍵因素,而常發區(qu)(qu)此(ci)期(qi)(qi)(qi)易遇(yu)(yu)到陰雨(yu)連(lian)綿或(huo)多霧天氣(qi),造(zao)成(cheng)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害嚴重流(liu)行(xing)。

　　預計2016年小麥(mai)赤(chi)霉病(bing)發(fa)生面(mian)積可達1億畝。其中(zhong)(zhong),湖北(bei)(bei)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)和江漢平原、安徽沿(yan)淮及其以南(nan)、江蘇沿(yan)江和蘇南(nan)、浙(zhe)江北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、上(shang)海沿(yan)海麥(mai)區有(you)大流(liu)行(xing)的(de)(de)風(feng)險,長江中(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)其他麥(mai)區和黃淮麥(mai)區有(you)偏(pian)重(zhong)流(liu)行(xing)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)和西(xi)(xi)南(nan)等麥(mai)區有(you)中(zhong)(zhong)等流(liu)行(xing)的(de)(de)可能。稻瘟(wen)病(bing)總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)等,局部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生,程度重(zhong)于2015年,發(fa)生面(mian)積8000萬畝次(ci),其中(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)(hua)南(nan)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)、江南(nan)、長江中(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)等部(bu)(bu)分稻區偏(pian)重(zhong)流(liu)行(xing),感病(bing)品種有(you)大流(liu)行(xing)的(de)(de)風(feng)險。玉(yu)米(mi)大斑病(bing)發(fa)生面(mian)積9000萬畝,在黑(hei)龍江、內蒙古東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)等地大發(fa)生,東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)大部(bu)(bu)為偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生,西(xi)(xi)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)生。馬鈴薯晚疫病(bing)發(fa)生面(mian)積3500萬畝,在西(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)產區總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)生,西(xi)(xi)南(nan)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)以及甘肅中(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)、陜西(xi)(xi)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)、內蒙古東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、山西(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、黑(hei)龍江中(zhong)(zhong)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)、湖北(bei)(bei)及湖南(nan)的(de)(de)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)流(liu)行(xing)風(feng)險高(gao)。

　　來(lai)源：全國農技推廣中(zhong)心